Arthur Dent continues to lead the way in thinking strategically about the new world situation in vigorous discussion at
Harry's Place
To keep up with the argument you would need to read the
Fictions thread, including the comments, initiated by Harry on February 8, 2005
As part of that thread Arthur, in response to Brownie, formulates the new world strategic considerations as follows:
An important reason for "Why Iraq" is that Iraq is a good place to start the process of "region change".
The bankruptcy of the sanctions meant that they had to be abandoned
without turning that into a victory for Saddam and Osama. The
viciousness of the regime and the existence of a democratic opposition
meant it would be feasible to transform Iraq by armed force far more
easily than any other significant country of the region. The impact of
democracy in Iraq would be felt throughout the region. The role of Shia
islam in Iran and as oppressed minorities in many other countries of
the region was also strategically important.
"Why when they did". Because the initial step of crushing Al Quaeda and
the Taliban in Afghanistan had already been taken and though the
aftermath of that would continue for many years it was time to take the
next step while people still remembered there was a war on and before
they had to be reminded by further growth of the enemy breeding in the
swamps.
Why is Bush raising the question of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Palestine
now? Because the second step has already been taken and while the
aftermath of that too will continue for many years it is time to move
on. The war is still on and the enemy is still breeding.
It is obvious that Saudi Arabia is the main swamp breeding jihadis,
that Israeli oppression of the Palestinians is a major liability for
the US and a strategic advantage for the jihadis, and that Egypt is the
most important country for the future of the whole region.
So that is why Bush is (slowly, hesitantly and cautiously) starting to move on.
What to do about that is now squarely on the public agenda.
The civil liberties question in this topic is far more central there
than it is here. The Saudi government obviously needs to be overthrown
before there can be the most elementary civil liberties there, the
Israelis need to get out of the whole West Bank to enable civil
liberties there and the Egyptian government also needs to be overthrown
to achieve more than minimal civil liberties there.
Bush is still talking in terms of the Saudis, Egypt and Israel "leading
the way". If we are in fact to the left of him, could we not at least
jump the gun a bit by focussing proactively instead of reactively on
how to overthrow the Saudi and Egyptian governments and push the
Israelis out of the West Bank?
The third is relatively straight forward - just outmaneuver the zionist lobby by posing as Sharon's best mate and then insist.
But the main opposition in Saudi Arabia is jihadi and the democratic
opposition is pitiful and Iraqi oil needs to be back on stream if an
upheaval in the Arabian peninsular is to be "manageable". Those
problems are very much on policy makers minds at the moment. Do we have
anything to say about them, or are we as irrelevant as the stoppers?
In Egypt there is a more significant democratic opposition and any
military intervention would weaken it rather than strengthen it. What
should be done to bring it to power?
Surely these are topics worth blogging about, if the issue is indeed on your mind.
Thinking strategically means making the effort to work out what is
behind the Bush policies, what is the real plan of Bush and co. Bush is
moving on, all the talk is now about democratic revolution, not war on
terror. With successful democratic elections in Iraq and
Palestine we have entered a new phase in the Middle East.
Progressively, the real Bush agenda is coming more into the open - and
for supporters of democracy it's good news. Arthur is making the
point that a genuine Left should be making the effort to lead such a
movement not trail behind gesticulating and criticising or indulging in
endless analysis of why the pseudo left doesn't understand it, which
tends to be a preoccupation at Harry's.
The best discussion on these issues at the moment is happening at
Harry's, particularly the comments by Arthur Dent. Another thread
worth having a close look at is
What's stopping us?
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