I’ve been following events in Israel-Palestine for quite sometime and thought I’d bring these links to everyone’s attention; as people who haven’t checked lately may not have noticed the acceleration that’s occurring.   It’s pretty hard to miss now if one sees current Israeli MSM.   Anyone who doubts that the war for greater Israel is ending in defeat (and soon) could be very surprised.

Olmert was elected two years ago on the policy of ending the occupation and withdrawing from the West Bank and if it was a good idea then, it’s recognised by many more as a better idea now, and Bush is definitely applying pressure, and now on a weekly basis.

But for Olmert to end the war he has to remain in power, and that’s not going to be with Shas, so after dropping from 78 seats (out of 120) to 67 in January, with the withdrawal of Yisrael Beiteinu’, he will lose another 12 seats when Shas walks, so he is talking to Meretz who have 5 seats, but they almost certainly won’t join, so he will have to run a minority government.  (and might be able to because Meretz probably won’t help to bring him down if he is moving quickly on ending the war)  In short the numbers are currently being reworked and Olmert will still have them (even if from a minority) because there are other MK’s that won’t stand in the way of ending the occupation.

The current stumbling block is actually Barak and his supporters in Labor but they actually won’t count if Olmert calls it on - unless they are prepared to bring Olmert down and can presumably get to the important number of 61.

I think that Barak’s own personal characteristics could be working against him making sound political decisions at present.  What I mean is that he has shown great personal courage in the face of extreme danger and so may be the last to call a halt, even though the jig is up with this war for greater Israel.  Individual people do matter.  But he is not carrying the party with him.  I think that when Peretz is speaking out so loudly about what he will do in a week’s time, that the numbers must be going against Barak.  It must be a close run thing (for Olmert to be talking to other Parties like Meretz) and I don’t know where the numbers actually are here but I would think that Peretz would have 10 plus to be carrying on the way he currently is. 

Let's say he is carrying 11 of Labor’s 19; with all Olmert's - Kadima’s 29, that’s 40; with Gil’s 7 that's 47; and with Meretz's 5; and the 10 “Arab parties” MKs that would be 62.  Unstable, but a majority, and then what would become of an utterly split Labor party, and in particular Barak’s element at the next election?   So I would expect Barak’s faction to probably cave at the last moment.

Whatever happens, the future government will be compelled by the U.S. etc to comply with what has been signed by Olmert once the deal is done.

'Barak is wrong, Olmert is right' Haaretz report

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Peretz to begin 'Free Marwan Barghouti' campaign.

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Israeli Prime Minister Olmert considers bringing the 'left-wing' party Meretz into governing coalition.

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Right-wing settler Party Shas threatens Olmert's' coalition over Hametz law.

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Now I recall that (on the Gaza thread) Guru Jane said; 

Also you guys are so committed to the idea that Barghouti will be released and somehow this will solve everything? Accepting (which I don't) Israel was prepared to release him in the forseeable future, what makes you think that Abbas (and the PLO hierarchy) actually wants him released? Why would Hamas want him released, for that matter? At the end, they're all politicians looking after their own power bases. Which is why, imo, they don't want the diaspora back in a hurry and nor would they want Barghouti.

I fear you are all falling into the trap of yearning for a "strong man".

And Arthur responded

Re Barghouti, it doesn't matter whether Hamas or Fateh actually wan't him released. They have both demanded it, whether they want it or not, which says something about his importance. The question is whether Israel will do it. If they won't they have been behaving very strangely in building up expectations and would be placing themselves in a position where they will eventually be having to explain that they are unable to negotiate with the elected President because they are holding him in prison. 

There may well be some "yearning for a strong man" among Palestinians but the point is that his position actually makes sense and consequently has support.

Angus Reid Global monitor "Barghouti, Abbas  very popular with Palestinian voters"

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Barghouti considers running for Palestinian President - Haaretz

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We shall soon see how this unfolds, but I will add to earlier bets and say that Marwan Barghouti will be released in the next three months.

Meanwhile Uri Avnery still thinks like this;

This week, a shocking document was published: David Rose’s article in Vanity Fair. It describes how US officials have in recent years dictated every single step of the Palestinian leadership, down to the most minute detail. Though the article does not touch the Israeli-American relationship (in itself a surprising omission) it goes without saying that the American course, including the smallest items, is coordinated with the Israeli government.

The article held no surprises: (a) The Americans ordered Mahmoud Abbas to hold parliamentary elections, in order to present Bush as bringing democracy to the Middle East. (b) Hamas won a surprise victory. (c) The Americans imposed a boycott on the Palestinians, in order to nullify the election results. (d) Abbas diverted for a moment from the policy dictated to him and, under Saudi auspices (and pressure), made an agreement with Hamas, (e) The Americans put an end to this and compelled Abbas to turn over all security services to Muhammad Dahlan, whom they had chosen for the role of strongman in Palestine, (f) The Americans provided plenty of money and arms to Dahlan, trained his men and ordered him to carry out a military coup against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, (g) The elected Hamas government forestalled the move and itself carried out an armed counter-coup.

All this was known before. What is new is that the mixture of news, rumours and intelligent guesses has now condensed into an authoritative, well substantiated report, based on official US documents. It testifies to the abysmal American ignorance, which trumps even Israeli ignorance, of the internal Palestinian processes.

What is our government trying to achieve in Gaza? It wants to topple Hamas rule (and incidentally also put an end to the launching of rockets against Israel).

It tried to achieve this by imposing a total blockade on the population, hoping that they would rise up and overthrow Hamas. This failed. The alternative course is to re-occupy the entire Strip. That would carry a high price in lives of soldiers, perhaps more than the Israeli public is ready to pay. Also, it will not help, because Hamas will return the moment the Israeli troops withdraw.

The only result of the Five-Day War is the strengthening of Hamas and the rallying of the Palestinian people behind it — not just in the Gaza Strip, but in the West Bank and Jerusalem, too. Their victory celebration was justified. The launching of rockets did not stop. The range of the rockets is increasing.

But let us assume that this policy had succeeded and that Hamas had been broken. What then? Abbas and Dahlan could return only on top of Israeli tanks, as subcontractors of the occupation. No insurance company would cover their lives. And if they did not come back, there would be chaos, out of which extreme forces would emerge the like of which we cannot even imagine.

Conclusion: Hamas is there. It cannot be ignored. We have to reach a cease-fire with it. Not a sham offer of “if they stop shooting first, then we will stop shooting”. A cease-fire, like a tango, needs two participants. It must come out of a detailed agreement that will include the cessation of all hostilities, armed and otherwise, in all the territories.

The cease-fire will not hold if it is not accompanied by sped-up negotiations for a long-term armistice (hudna) and peace. Such negotiations cannot be held with Fatah and not Hamas, nor with Hamas and not Fatah. Therefore, what is needed is a Palestinian government that includes both movements.

Uri Avnery is an Israeli peace activist who has advocated the setting up of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. He served three terms in the Israeli parliament (Knesset), and is the founder of Gush Shalom (Peace Bloc)

Pakistan Daily Times report "Kill and rest" - Uri Avnery

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There’s a train coming; and those blind and deaf with hatred of the U.S.A., or of GWB will be surprised by it, just before their analysis of what the U.S. are up to in the Middle East gets run down.  Avnery style thinking is simply going to be rundown by events.  Who knows the exact when, what,and who, (Barghouti may be killed for example) but the war for greater Israel is definitely dead in the water.  It’s peculiar to watch the anti-Iraq war pseudo-left, and the pro-Iraq war Eustonite types dealing with the issue, while either scoffing, (it's Pollyannaish) or pretending that the Lastsuperpower analysis is not clearly on the record. 

The truth is, the only analysis that is still holding is that the U.S. Administration has set the new policies to drain the swamp that the old policies sustained, and that’s bad news for Zionism.   So there we have it almost all the ‘Decent left’ turned out to be apologists for Zionism.

Some further thoughts on what has brought the issue of Marwan Barghouti’s release to centre stage at this point, rather than say six months ago when we were discussing him on the Gaza thread.

His generational change presidency when it comes will tend to deliver a ‘mood’ swing for the whole region (that has such a youthful population profile that almost by definition is impressionable).   

Cultural backwaters, in such an oppressive political swamp produce ‘keep your head down and look out for your family’ masses who are sullen, and quietly resentful but who can nevertheless quickly erupt onto the streets, and turn nasty at points of greater than usual pressure.  

In Palestine the masses are regularly in the streets burying their dead and so forth.  They have the great experience of the Intifadas.  The whole culture is built on issues and opportunities of mass resistance to occupation and oppression.  Importantly for us at this point they are about to win a very large victory and a new state will take its place in the Assembly of the United Nations.  The Israeli leadership knows this and is currently discussing what they can do to get a Palestinian state that has an emerging new leadership that is youthful and not corrupt.  A ‘Mandela’ type leadership right at the heart of the swamp would I think be better for all concerned at this point.  

With no political analysis coming from any political trend that has stood up to events since 2001, Middle Eastern populations are now totally confused.  It’s not just the western pseudo-left that is disorientated by the confusing events unfolding this century.  But unlike western pseudo types Middle Eastern youth are desperately hungry for change and longing for a restoration or establishment of some form of collective pride.  This is about to happen and so there is a contest over the brand of pride to be sold to the masses. 

The brand that gets the big breakthrough will establish brand loyalty for years to come.

Islamists would have the masses view themselves as Islamic first and foremost, and pride restored on that basis; while nationalists would want national pride established; but the truth is that groupings like Hezbollah and Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood have some degree of front running momentum.  This result is not in the interests of the “Great Satan”, nor in the interests of the “Little Satan”, whose leadership has or is only just discovering the truth.

It is now in Israel’s interests to see the emergence of secular democracies in the region when to this point it was seen by the Zionist ruling elite to be in their interests to keep the region a swamp, and once more ‘all that is solid melts into air’.

So, why have the Zionists back-flipped?  The answer is because their old policies have run to their end in complete bankruptcy, just as the failed U.S. policies did in 2001. 

Events this year have reversed the trend of slowly falling support for Hamas as Palestinians recognized that in destroying the old border arrangements on the Egyptian border Hamas began ending the prison status of Gaza and effectively won a great victory over yet another failed Zionist approach. 

Reforming Fatah cannot make rapid enough progress without ending the occupation and the occupation can’t be ended without the prisoners/hostages being released.

What the Palestinians of Gaza now refer to as the 5 day war also, despite the casualties of 120 dead compared to 2 Israelis, ended in another defeat for Israeli policies when a Palestinian man from East Jerusalem killed 8 religious students before being killed himself.  It’s clear to me that bloodshed on the scale inflicted collectively on the people of Gaza will generate that type of revenge killing and while all this revolting slaughter unfolds Abbas is sidelined and seen by the masses as getting nowhere.  That has to end.  Fatah must be seen to be delivering and can only do so with an acceptable end to the occupation.

Odds are shortening on an agreement before GWB moves on!

What have the odds shortened to?

I think I might be interested in having a flutter on there being no agreement.

Any genuine final status agreement would have to be very close to Bill Clinton's final proposal back in 2001 - ie No Right of Return to Israel and Israeli sovereignity over the area of the Wailing Wall in Arab East Jerusalem.

I have seen no signs that the Palestinian leadership has done any groundwork  to prepare its constituency for these extremely painful concessions. Therefore I can't see any agreement being reached. If it is,  and includes the above provisions, it will collapse just as Camp David did.

By failing to call new elections after the Hamas coup, Abbas has lost political momentum and has entrenched the current Palestinian "2 entities" solution.

Gurujane might well have added that neither have the Israeli leadership prepeared its constituency that Palestinians:  Muslims and Christians,  and their descendants,  should be welcomed back to resume occupancy of land, homes, and farms from which they have been been excluded,  these past 60 years or more.

So,  sadly, she is quite right to conclude that any agreement is quite unlikely at present.