http://www.centcom.mil/extremistssay.asp
analysis
http://www.centcom.mil/english_version.htm
english version of the letter
ANALYSIS SUMMARY
First 4 points - al-Qaida strategy / core beliefs
Next 3 points - al-Qaida worried that situation is turning against them
1. Zawahiri views
Iraq
as the bridgehead for the creation of a new Islamic caliphate –
their ultimate objective.
2. Under al-Qaida,
Iraq
will serve as a terrorist haven and staging ground for attacks
against
Iraq
’s neighbors and quite possibly Western nations
3. Zawahiri
believes in religious intolerance and converting, conquering, or
killing anyone who does not believe as he does. His only
concern is how to deceive the population that this is not the case
by urging Zarqawi to reduce attacks on Shia civilians
4. The
letter demonstrates that pulling US forces out of
Iraq
is the wrong approach – that terrorists will not simply lay down
their arms when American forces depart
Iraq
... they are committed to overthrowing the elected,
democratic Iraqi government and ruling the country according to
their interpretation of Islamic law
5. Zawahiri
clearly is worried they are losing public support in Iraq, and is
attuned to the role of the media in the battle for such support.
Zawahiri emphasizes that
the struggle is ideological, with each side competing for the
popular support and loyalty of the Muslim world. Zarqawi’s
methods are backfiring by alienating the Iraqi people with attacks
against the Shia.
6. Zawahiri,
who previously termed democracy heretical, is willing to exploit the
political process unfolding in
Iraq
to advance the group’s goals. Zawahiri
is advocating a modified strategy in an attempt to expand the
group’s Sunni support base in
Iraq
. It is tacit acknowledgement that the political process
unfolding in
Iraq
appeals to average Iraqis
7. Zawahiri’s
letter to Zarqawi reveals continued points of weakness in
Pakistan-based al-Qaida senior leaders and what they need to operate
and survive
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